Select BBS Board:
Select My Favorite Posters
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Re: 求教Lehman 怎么看MA |
Lehman 2009-06-04
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MITBBS -- Re: 求教Lehman 怎么看MA
还好, 你没有亏钱吧, 不过现在局面很混乱 ( 参阅http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/31996927.html ), 做空请小心, 我的心态是小输当赢, 很少有仓位过周末的.
我没有short它 (short要付利息的,我不太愿意), 只是上了扑, 当时价格是169左右,
主要是因为JP Morgan要舍弃它用Visa, 所以我扑了MA, 后来大盘长了两天它没长, 我
很高兴, 后来MA也长了, 我觉得买options的人不应该耗时间, 时间对买options的人是
没有好处的, 所以撤了, 否则即使MA不长上去我也会亏的, 它没有按照我的预想跌到
160我就不赌了.
你如果一定要赌, 在这里问一问大牛, 否则要么撤兵, 要么买点VISA作为hedge.
Cast your own vote here:
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Re: Re: |
Lehman 2009-06-03
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MITBBS -- Re: Re:
不是我的分析, 是我转贴的分析, 既然有胆量买, 可要拿住哦, 当心给震出来了, 大家
一起发财
【 在 brickie (Bricklayer--用豆腐渣砌防火墙的砖匠) 的大作中提到: 】
: 下午看了你的分析贴，就进去用指甲尖蘸了点血腥。等你买蛋糕的时候，我贡献一节蜡
: 烛哈。支持斑竹。
: ..
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: Re: |
Lehman 2009-06-03
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MITBBS -- Re: Re:
呵呵, 我今天第一感觉进了点VLO, 准备捂到lyrist80大寿的时候买蛋糕, 到时候大家
赏光啊...
顺便说一句, 当班主真的不容易, 大家欣赏一下yyber吧, 虽然我跟他没有任何交情...
【 在 pstwo (孤独的星) 的大作中提到: 】
: 第一反应往往是正确的，我有同感，尤其是股市....这两个月来...
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 做了个梦: 很黄很暴力 |
Lehman 2009-06-03
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MITBBS -- Re: 做了个梦: 很黄很暴力
哈哈，二奶是不会的，后妈倒是有可能的哦...
我又没说我现在就要美眉，我再三说过我只会等她到８０岁的呀...
一个２２岁的gg和一个２０岁的mm牵手很正常吧，年龄相差１０％哦...
假设我比lyrist大８岁，等她８０岁了，我就８８啦，年龄相差也是１０％哦...
我８８岁的时候曾孙子大概也会吃饭睡觉打酱油了，lyrist不仅仅做后妈，后奶奶也有
可能的啊
【 在 badcompany (上网就是为了扯淡！) 的大作中提到: 】
: 靠，这么老？你想让人MM做二奶还是做后妈？
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: VLO research |
Lehman 2009-06-03
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MITBBS -- Re: VLO research
SIG Commodity-Energy Morning Report
2009-06-03 12:39:59.101 GMT
Commodity/Energy Morning Report
Published by Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Member FINRA
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
SIG Commodity/Energy Morning Report
Brian Niemiec - 610-747-1557 - Brian.Niemiec@sig.com
NOTEWORTHY NEWS/OBSERVATIONS/IDEAS
Energy and commodity prices are generally weaker again this morning after
moving slightly lower by the end of yesterday's session. Crude oil is
trading just under $68/barrel as the dollar is stronger and the broad based
equity markets are indicated to open lower. Later this morning, the
Department of Energy will report crude oil and refined product inventory
levels, following the API numbers after yesterday's close. Current market
expectations are for crude inventories to decline 1.5 mln barrels, gasoline
inventories to increase 0.65 mln barrels, and distillate inventories to
increase 0.90 mln barrels. In company specific news, HES traded down more
than 11% yesterday on no specific news. There had been speculation in the
market that an important Brazilian well the company is drilling with XOM was
a failure. This morning, Bloomberg reported that XOM filed a report with
Brazilian regulators that the drilling of a well in Brazil's offshore Santos
Basin was complete. According to the Bloomberg report, XOM failed to
mention whether any oil or gas was discovered. While the exact timing of the
XOM filing is unclear, it may have been the cause for concern surrounding
HES.
UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES
Upgrades
ABX (gold) – upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital
NEM (gold) – upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan Downgrades
VLO (refiners) – downgraded to underperform from market perform at BMO
Capital
BASIC MATERIALS
AAUK said the demand for commodities is likely to remain weak in the near
term due to the global recession. The company said the timing of any
recovery is still uncertain, but there is somewhat of a more positive
outlook on prices.
STLD cut its quarterly dividend by 25% to $0.075 from $0.10, with an ex-date
of June 26. The company also announced it would sell 27 mln new shares and
$150 mln in convertible notes in order to pay down debt.
JOYG reported 2Q EPS of $1.17 vs. $0.89 consensus on revenue of $924 mln vs.
$872 mln consensus. The company guided 2009 EPS to $3.80-$4.00 vs. $3.55
consensus.
OIL & GAS
ME filed to issue 10 mln shares through a secondary offering and $250 mln in
senior notes.
VLO guided 2Q EPS to ($0.50) vs. $0.74 consensus. The company cited various
factors, including extended downtime at its Delaware City and McKee
refineries, and by the continuation of weak sour crude oil discounts and
lower diesel margins. VLO also announced a 40 mln share secondary offering.
Related stocks:
SUN, TSO, FTO, WNR, HOC.
NFX announced two new discoveries in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The
Pyrenees and Winter discoveries both encountered hydrocarbon pay, but have
been temporarily abandoned in order to consider various development options.
SGY and APA also have working interests in the wells.
OPTIONS ACTIVITY
EP: (October call buyers) In El Paso Corp. there are opening buyers of ~25,
000 October 7 (.85d) calls paying up to $3.40. The high delta of the calls
implies a directionally bullish bias in what could potentially be a stock
replacement strategy.
MT: (June put spread buyers) In ArcelorMittal investors bought 5,300 June 31
/25 put spreads for $0.60. The investors are most likely rolling their long
protective puts to a higher strike. Last week, we highlighted a notable
amount of volatility buying across the steel sector following bullish
industry comments from the company.
HES: (Volatility buying) Alongside yesterday's weakness in shares of Hess
Corp we saw investors predominately buying near-term volatility across
multiple strikes in both the June and July calls and puts. Almost 40,000
calls and more than 50,000 puts traded yesterday, compared to average daily
volumes of just over 4,000 calls and 3,000 puts.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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VLO research |
Lehman 2009-06-03
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MITBBS -- VLO research
Flash: VLO: Surprise Equity Offering and 2Q09 Loss
2009-06-03 12:26:57.921 GMT
Synopsis:
Second quarter earnings loss expected — VLO announced today that it expects
a net loss of ~$0.50/shr for 2Q09 (versus our estimate of +$1.02). Losses
are attributed to extended downtime at its Delaware City and McKee
refineries (12% of total capacity). While we had expected lower sour crude
differentials and diesel margins we had not expected this level of down time.
Abstract:
Description:
Citigroup - Equity Research 3 June 2009
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (GICS) | Refiners (Citi)
Company Flash - 8 pp.
****************************************************************************
Valero Energy Corp (VLO) Buy/High Risk (1H)
Surprise Equity Offering and 2Q09 Loss
****************************************************************************
Faisel Khan, CFA
+1-212-816-2825
faisel.khan@citi.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Second quarter earnings loss expected - VLO announced today that it
expects a net loss of ~$0.50/shr for 2Q09 (versus our estimate of
+$1.02). Losses are attributed to extended downtime at its Delaware City
and McKee refineries (12% of total capacity). While we had expected lower
sour crude differentials and diesel margins we had not expected this
level of down time.
* Common equity offering announced - VLO also announced its intention to
offer 40 million common shares to the market. Including the option
granted to the underwriters for an additional 6 million shares, the total
value of the offering comes to $1 billion. This issuance adds another $1
billion to VLO's $1.7 billion of cash on hand at the end of the first
quarter.
* 2009 capex and acquisitions - We estimate VLO will spend $2.5 billion on
capex, $1.3 billion on acquisitions, and $200 million to retire current
maturities in 2009. Given the operating loss in 2Q, and assuming our 3Q
and 4Q numbers are still intact, we estimate VLO will end the year with
$0.5 billion in cash (excluding working capital effects). While we
believed the company already had a strong balance sheet, apparently it
required more liquidity to consummate the current announced acquisitions
and deal with the current refining environment.
* Valuation and risks - We maintain our Buy High Risk rating & $25 target
pending additional analysis. However we are disappointed in the 2Q09 loss
and the liquidity needs of the company. We expect the shares to be under
pressure until the equity offering is consummated.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price (02 Jun 09)............US$22.38 Target price................US$25.00
Expected share price return.....11.7% Expected dividend yield.........2.7%
Expected total return...........14.4% Market Cap................US$11,557M
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 做了个梦: 很黄很暴力 |
Lehman 2009-06-02
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MITBBS -- Re: 做了个梦: 很黄很暴力
呵呵, 我是那个时代的人啊, 那时新闻是一边倒向学生的, 李鹏会见学生代表的时候是
直播的, 我看了直播后在当天的日记里就说这次学生运动可能要失败, 学生代表根本不
知道自己要什么, 而且有很多表演的成分.
我不是在BSO自己有超前的观察力, 实际上如果我们能够客观的反省就会知道学生当时
是多么幼稚, 柴玲等人是多么卑鄙, 政府是多么官僚和无能(你青春期的儿子和你吵嘴,
你会杀了他吗?你不会用别的办法吗?)
可知我有多老了吧, 呵呵, 我是一只千年老蛙啊...
【 在 wavelets01 (正正正指 -正到上溢出) 的大作中提到: 】
: 太感动了。
: 对20年前的事情表示遗憾
: fundamentals
Cast your own vote here:
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Re: 我是第一个质疑蓉儿的网友，我说几句公道话 |
Lehman 2009-06-02
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MITBBS -- Re: 我是第一个质疑蓉儿的网友，我说几句公道话
有没有办法把IP地址集中起来? 所有的马甲都现行了.
【 在 moneyguy (moneyguy) 的大作中提到: 】
: 去投诉版主的那个yudafa就是lz的马甲（same IP），换了不同的马甲都被斑竹封了，
: 也要从自己的身上找找原因。看得出来你是个极有心计的能人，搅得版上翻江倒海的，
: 发完了骂版主的帖子，数落完蓉儿又来假装公道替她和斑竹说公道话，两面三刀，想把
: 版主换了，取而代之之心昭然若揭，大家要警惕啊。
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/31996805.html
Cast your own vote here:
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Re: 世界银行发布了二份极具震撼力的报告 |
Lehman 2009-06-02
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MITBBS -- Re: 世界银行发布了二份极具震撼力的报告
希望中国人人手一册这份报告.
【 在 eventhere (我就一批发酱油的) 的大作中提到: 】
: 世界银行发布了二份极具震撼力的报告
: 第一份关于俄罗斯经济状况的报告指出，俄罗斯经济增长是符合穷人利益的经济增长。
: 第二份报告涉及中国，中国在2001年至2005年间，中国经济以每年10%的速度增长，但
: 13亿人口中最贫穷的10%的人口实际收入却下降了2.4%。
Cast your own vote here:
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Re: 中投想下盘大棋的话，听我支一招吧 |
Lehman 2009-06-02
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MITBBS -- Re: 中投想下盘大棋的话，听我支一招吧
楼主犯了两个错误:
(1) 你高估中投了, 工资那么低, 而且机关作风严重, 恐怕有楼主这般见识的人未必愿
意去屈就吧.
(2) 你低估华尔街的银行家了
【 在 kuangkan (狂砍一条街) 的大作中提到: 】
: 看来中投那帮nc是受了中央或洋人的种种压力，终于出手了
: 可我不认为他们在下一盘大棋，而是在把人民的血汗往坑里扔
: 可假设他们真在下一盘大棋的话，至少也听我支一招吧
: 首先中投在国内A股出手收购中石油，中移动，工行等指标股的非流通股，然后拿这些
: 股份跟想吃进的美国企业的股份交换，而不是拿真金白银交换。但前提是中国国企的股
: 份是没有表决权的非流通股。
: 这样既完成了他们所谓的战略抄底任务，又能把老美套在A股当明庄
: 当然老美可以用我们的股份在美国抵押拿到他们需要的cash
: 而我们至少完成了中美绑在一起的战略，今后我们对台湾，南海动武也就没有后顾之
忧了
: 反正是赔钱哄老美高兴，好歹换个战略安全吧
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 关于drys |
Lehman 2009-06-01
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MITBBS -- Re: 关于drys
see attached pdf file
【 在 gedageda170 (gedageda) 的大作中提到: 】
: 哪里可以下每个月或者每年share outstanding数据？？
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: buy drys 1000@7.88 |
Lehman 2009-06-01
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MITBBS -- Re: buy drys 1000@7.88
DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) – The dry-bulk haulage company, along with a number
of other dry-bulk ship owners, has benefited from a rise in transport rates
for the month of May, which were lifted by rising demand for China-bound
commodities. Shares of DRYS were rallying higher this morning but have since
tapered off to a loss of about 3% to $7.96. Looking past the near-term
contracts to September’s expiration, one option trader is evidently hoping
for a significant recovery as he initiated a bull call spread on the stock.
The purchase of 10,000 calls at the September 10 strike for 1.45 each was
spread against the sale of 10,000 calls at the higher September 15 strike
for an average premium of 50 cents per contract. The net cost of the bullish
position amounts to 95 cents and yields maximum potential profits to the
trader of 4.05 if shares can climb up to $15.00 by expiration. The stock
would need to rise approximately 38% to the breakeven point at $10.95 before
the trader begins to amass profits on today’s trade.
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 不明白所谓“资金流入流出“是啥意思 |
Lehman 2009-05-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 不明白所谓“资金流入流出“是啥意思
呵呵, 其实我是个好人, 而且是好意, 怎么转了一圈回来看自己写的东西, 倒象是涩色
狼了...
哈哈哈, 要联系上下文看才会知道我不是坏人哦
【 在 lyrist (我是捂大的) 的大作中提到: 】
: -_-!!
【 在 Lehman (Brothers) 的大作中提到: 】
: 到时候股版说不定很多人去啊, 可以在白拉兽的喷泉那里合影, 到MGM看狮子啊, 但是
: 吃饭我只请lyrist美眉哦, 其他人自己付帐吧, 我订一个两张床的标间, 放心, 我不会
: 犯法的...
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 本周股市展望 |
Lehman 2009-05-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 本周股市展望
你是熊族首领, 熊大王,
我是熊喽猡
【 在 babycrynot (不哭的小孩儿) 的大作中提到: 】
: 失业率的作用很快就会显现，但是最近对股市的反应不大，股市暂时忽略正好让熊熊开
: 始进货啊。
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 不明白所谓“资金流入流出“是啥意思 |
Lehman 2009-05-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 不明白所谓“资金流入流出“是啥意思
到时候股版说不定很多人去啊, 可以在白拉兽的喷泉那里合影, 到MGM看狮子啊, 但是
吃饭我只请lyrist美眉哦, 其他人自己付帐吧, 我订一个两张床的标间, 放心, 我不会
犯法的...
【 在 lami (k...) 的大作中提到: 】
: 目瞪口呆
: 公开date
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 本周股市展望 |
Lehman 2009-05-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 本周股市展望
汽车厂倒闭是去年12月就知道的事情, 没有悬念, 关键是失业率怎么办
--------------------------------------
据香港《大公报》报道称，美国本周公布最新失业率，据彭博经济员调查预测，5月份
失业率料超过9%，为25年来最高，并估计年底失业率更会迫近10%。
美国劳工部本周五(5日)公布失业数据，彭博经济员事前调查预测，美国5月份失业率可
能超越9%，是25年来首见。
调查结果显示，经济员预计失业率将急升至9.2%，是1983年9月来最高，同时预测年底
失业率进一步贴近10%。瑞穗证券美国首席经济员指出，经济衰退缓和，不过仍未脱离
困境。经济员相信，美国失业率高企不下，消费开支必然受压，推延经济复苏步伐。由
于房屋违约及断供情况持续，银行不愿意随便供钱，信贷融资并不容易。调查并预5月
制造业约裁减15万个职位。
报道还称，本周多项因素左右金融市场去向，市场注视最新的经济事件，还有濒临破产
通用汽车事态发展，市场预期通用汽车于6月1日宣布破产，上周五通用汽车股价首次跌
穿1美元。投资者亦关注债券市场及美元弱势情况。
Cast your own vote here:
digest it! dump it!
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Re: 不明白所谓“资金流入流出“是啥意思 |
Lehman 2009-05-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 不明白所谓“资金流入流出“是啥意思
真的怀疑出来见见啊, 七月三号到Vegas共度周末啊
【 在 lyrist (我是捂大的) 的大作中提到: 】
: 呵呵，怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀
: 疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀
: 疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑怀疑！！！！！
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Re: 不明白所谓“资金流入流出“是啥意思 |
Lehman 2009-05-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 不明白所谓“资金流入流出“是啥意思
别不信啦, 自古嫦娥爱少年, 你还是跟帅哥多青春浪漫吧, 我只有等你老了才能来找你
, 记着到时候给我发包子哦.
我不老, 怎么会在这里这么长时间从来不生气, 不骂人, 不惹事生非? 这些都是年轻人
才有的朝气蓬勃啊.
你要相信我哦
【 在 lyrist (我是捂大的) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我不信。。。
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Re: 开一个俱乐部的想法 |
Lehman 2009-05-31
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MITBBS -- Re: 开一个俱乐部的想法
不妨叫做"刀头舔血"
【 在 ggalaxy (银河) 的大作中提到: 】
: the name I can suggest is "乘风破浪"。。。
: how do you like it?
: above
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-- quality posts less water